4/8 NFT Market Analysis
If you listen to my podcast, my spaces, or know anything about me, you know I like the Rubber Duckz project. It’s a project that has quietly been growing and continues to deliver. And I’m not alone, just last week Zeneca bought 32 Duckz. 🤯
Besides the fun art, great team, strong community, they have also been quietly delivering some fantastic market analysis reports to Duck holders in their Discord EVERY WEEKDAY. It’s another reason why Rubber Duckz are my first recommendation to new friends entering the space. I tell them, “Buy a duck, you get a great investment, you get access to market analysis that people should be paying for and you get exposure to a really fun community.” Not only that, but you get access to all the previous analysis, and access to chat with the brilliant writer, @checker4e
So this week, with the permission of Rubber Duckz, I wanted to share with you all one of their market analysis.
Rubber Duckz Analysis 4/8/2022
Crypto/NFT market sentiment: Sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish, while the charts and on-chain data are looking more bullish. We had a breakout 2 weeks ago of the year long resistance zone and Bitcoin came back down for a re-test and sitting now at this support zone (~$42-44k). The daily stochastic RSI is in oversold territory, signaling a potential change in price action to the upside. Ideally we would like to see a new higher high in the next days and work our way up in the coming weeks to a new all-time-high. More downside is still possible, but as long as we hold ~$40k we still would have made a higher low and don’t lose the bullish momentum we build from a technical stand-point. Please keep in mind, that the Bitcoin Miami Conference is on-going and huge news can drop anytime. This could mess with the price action especially on the lower volume weekend.
We had now 8 consecutive days with volume above $100M traded on OpenSea, which is good to see. It´s not a new bull-market for now, but I see more projects being able to sell out and establish a decent floor price. Also the amount of meme projects is rising again, a sign that people are comfortable with risking more. If the above explained scenario realizes and Bitcoin & ETH move strongly to the upside, NFTs could suffer in the short term. In the end it all depends on the volume and if the NFT market can attract enough to enable a sustain price action for all the projects. Looking at historical data, this was not the case when cryptos are moving strong to the upside. But all comes in circles and the money will flow back into NFTs when the major coins calm down (like in the past 1-2 weeks).
News that caught my eye: As stated above, the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami is happening at the moment and lots of exciting news are being announced. These are my key highlights so far: Strike announced a partnership with Shopify. Customers can pay in Bitcoin and the lightning network is used as a payment method between the customer and Shopify. Strike also announced a partnership with Blackhawk Payment and the NCR Corporation. The later is especially interesting, because NCR is the biggest provider for point-of-sales terminals in the US. The integration of lightning into these POS terminals enables customer to pay in Bitcoin and use every lightning wallet in shops like Walmart, Whole Foods and Starbucks. In all these use-cases, Bitcoin will be converted to USD before it get to the vendor to mitigate any regulatory issues. The settlement in Bitcoin over lightning is faster (seconds vs. days) and cheaper (almost zero vs. ~3%) as the current decades old infrastructure of credit cards and banks. It definitely has the potential to replace this old system with a growing adoption over time and it enables people here and now to basically live their lives by only spending Bitcoin instead of fiat. There are still some hurdles, like capital gains taxes for spending Bitcoin.
A Problem that El Salvador already solved last year by making Bitcoin legal tender. This year a Mexican Senator announced, that she will submit a proposal to make Bitcoin legal tender in the country. It’s questionable that this proposal will pass the Senate, but it has huge backing from Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas and the former Blockstream CSO Samson Mow agrees on meeting the Mexican President to talk about the benefits of Bitcoin as legal tender. Other countries testing the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in special economic zones like Lugano (Switzerland), Prospera (Honduras) and Madeira (Portugal). All regions that will implement Bitcoin as currency without capital gains tax and the ability to pay taxes, goods and services with it. We will see a lot more of these experiments around the globe and a growing adoption in the coming years.
Small educational bits: Investing Strategies Part 8: The Sniper With this strategy you are searching for good deals on rare and in demand NFTs to sell them short to mid-term at a higher price. Usually it’s better to concentrate on one or very few projects. Find a project with high volume and a lot of daily listing/sales, so that you get enough sniping chances and to make selling easier. Analyze the collection, rarity system and community first. Are the buyers going strictly for rarity ranks or are they buying specific traits. What is the official ranking site and is there any added utility to rarer items from the collection? Also keep track of the different floor prices for specific traits / sub-collections. Search for a good tool to monitor the listings and rarities in real time, that works well with the collection you would like to trade (double check if rankings are correct). And then it’s basically a waiting game. Once an interesting listings appears, you have to validate it fast and act accordingly. Once again a reminder to use https://www.derisk.tools/ to calculate the price you have to sell for, to make a profit on your buy. This strategy typically requires holding more liquidity, while waiting for good deals and it is a bit riskier, since you buy rarer items that normally not sell that fast compared to floor pieces.
Now that I explained 8 different NFT investing strategies, what are the ones you use and what are your experiences so far with them? You can find all of the strategies in the #market-insights channels to read them again.
Noochie here again! Section 3 outlines a trading strategy I have personally been trying to improve upon. If you want to learn more about this, @Cirrus on twitter has thread that should now be documented in the NFT trading history books.
That’s all for this week, happy trading!
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